Comments on: U.S. Secretly Aids Pakistan in Guarding Nuclear Arms http://texasfred.net/archives/734 No Holds Barred: News Opinion Commentary Fri, 19 Mar 2010 04:28:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: John Merryweather Cooper http://texasfred.net/archives/734/comment-page-1#comment-4738 John Merryweather Cooper Sun, 18 Nov 2007 09:08:53 +0000 http://texasfred.net/archives/734#comment-4738 I believe the real problem is that the Pakistanis probably don't want one of the key parts of PAL--two man control. With current system of strong man rule, the ruler at the top wants the instantaneous obediance of his/her military faction (which may or may not be the majority military faction). Two man control has two out of three scenarios that would displease the strong man. With Scenario 1 (both officers of the strong man's faction), all is well. However, Scenario 2 (one officer from each of two different factions) and Scenario 3 (two officers from a faction opposed to the strong man), may put the weapon beyond the strong man's control. This is compounded by the reality that, from what I have read, the F-16 would be the Pakistani's primary delivery platform. Most F-16's are single seaters, and so two-man control would be lost once the F-16 was weaponized anyway (however, a PAL system would at least avoid having planes flying around with hot nukes). While were talking about Pakistani instability and nukes, it is instructive to remember that large number of the members of the ruling party in India actively favor a first strike against Pakistan. If circumstances deteriorate to the point where Pakistan's minimal deterret evaporates, India may attempt to secure its long sought-after domination of the Indian-subcontinent with a first strike. I believe the real problem is that the Pakistanis probably don’t want one of the key parts of PAL–two man control. With current system of strong man rule, the ruler at the top wants the instantaneous obediance of his/her military faction (which may or may not be the majority military faction). Two man control has two out of three scenarios that would displease the strong man. With Scenario 1 (both officers of the strong man’s faction), all is well. However, Scenario 2 (one officer from each of two different factions) and Scenario 3 (two officers from a faction opposed to the strong man), may put the weapon beyond the strong man’s control. This is compounded by the reality that, from what I have read, the F-16 would be the Pakistani’s primary delivery platform. Most F-16’s are single seaters, and so two-man control would be lost once the F-16 was weaponized anyway (however, a PAL system would at least avoid having planes flying around with hot nukes).

While were talking about Pakistani instability and nukes, it is instructive to remember that large number of the members of the ruling party in India actively favor a first strike against Pakistan. If circumstances deteriorate to the point where Pakistan’s minimal deterret evaporates, India may attempt to secure its long sought-after domination of the Indian-subcontinent with a first strike.

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