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How far down is economy headed?

May 8th, 2008 . by TexasFred

House prices are falling, food and energy prices are rising and consumers are gloomier than they’ve been in decades. But the latest data on the U.S. economy shows it still has a feeble pulse.

So which is it? Are we in the early stages of a full-blown recession? Or is this a brief downturn before the economy gets up another head of steam later in the year?

Though the start of a recession can only be seen in the rear-view mirror, many economists now believe the U.S. economy is close to recession or in one. That’s based largely on a string of monthly reports showing the economy has lost about 260,000 jobs so far this year.

“Since the 1950s we’ve never had a period of four months of job losses without that signaling that we were in a recession,” said Jared Bernstein, senior economist of the Economic Policy Institute. “If and when (a recession is confirmed), it will probably be dated based on these payroll numbers as starting sometime around December or January.”

But other economic signals are flashing yellow, not red. The government recently reported the gross domestic product grew slightly in the first quarter, while generally GDP shrinks in a recession. Last week’s employment report for April showed the economy lost only 20,000 jobs, fewer than in previous months.

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How far down is economy headed?

I’m not an economist, I don’t claim to be but I know what the current financial down turn is doing to us and our money…

Just like all Americans, we’re paying more for food and gas, as well as other items from retailers, and like many Americans, we’re on a fixed income, I am retired and unless we get an across the board increase in benefits, my check is fixed every month, I can’t work a few more hours of overtime to make up the difference in our disposable income…

I do have some investments, and they were growing, and doing quite well until 2007, we lost about $10K on our annuity, and that’s a big hit for someone that isn’t rich, it affects our overall lifestyle, as I am sure my readers are well aware, I know that most of my readers are hard working people too, and many are retirees and in the same boat as we are…

I don’t know what the solution is, my investment guy doesn’t know either, he thinks it’s a hic-up, at least he hopes it is, he has money tied up in ALL the same investments that we do…

The sad part is, none of these interest rate cuts the Fed has initiated have made any real difference so far, other than to affect the earnings of those that live off of their interest, and when it comes to a time when you have to start tapping into your principle, well, it may not be a recession, but it’s pretty close…

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The U.S., the U.N. and World Hunger

April 21st, 2008 . by TexasFred

ACCRA, Ghana (AP) - The U.N. chief warned Sunday that the world must urgently increase food production to ease skyrocketing prices and pledged to set up a task force on a crisis threatening to destabilize developing nations.

The cost of food has increased by around 40 percent since mid-2007 worldwide, and the strain has caused riots and protests in countries like Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Haiti and Egypt.

“We must make no mistake, the problem is big. If we offer the right aid, the solutions will come,” Ban said at the opening of a a five-day U.N. conference on trade and development in Ghana’s capital, Accra.“One thing is certain, the world has consumed more than it has produced” over the last three years, he said.

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UN chief warns world must urgently increase food production

DES MOINES, Iowa - At a time of record agricultural profits, concerns are mounting that American farmers could be edging toward a financial crisis not seen since the 1980s farm-economy collapse.

- At a time of record agricultural profits, concerns are mounting that American farmers could be edging toward a financial crisis not seen since the 1980s farm-economy collapse.

Soaring land values, increasing debt and a reliance on government subsidies for ethanol production have prompted economists to warn that what some describe as a golden age of agriculture could come to a sudden end. At risk are the livelihoods of thousands of farmers, the health of hundreds of banks and the vitality of an agricultural industry that has been one of the nation’s few economic bright spots in recent months.

“We’re in a very risky time, and yet we don’t seem concerned about that risk nearly as much as we should be,” said Barry L. Flinchbaugh, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University.

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Crisis looming for U.S. farmers?

The USA has been the bread basket of the world for many years but it appears that could soon become a thing of the past…

Many 3rd world nations are hungry, and that is a sad situation, but those 3rd world countries aren’t producers, they are consumers, and their consumption is not accomplished through buying foodstuffs, they are not contributing to any economy, they are leeching off of other, more prosperous nations, they are the recipients of charity, donations, food surpluses from other nations, but those surplus food supplies are rapidly drying up, and U.S. production is on the verge of a serious crisis that may leave the USA with no choice other than to take care of her own, and that would be a real change of attitude I think, for America to actually place Americans 1st as we feed, clothe and house all of OUR people before we worry about the well being of others…

In many cases, those others that we take care of are more than able to help themselves, if only they would, they could stop their warring factions from fighting and have them begin farming, they could feed their own instead of wiping them out in tribal genocide…

I know that the USA can’t engage in total isolationism, but we are fast approaching a time when we will be faced with some really tough decisions, not tough for me, but certainly difficult for those that put the welfare of other nations ahead of our own…

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Cross Posted @ Reject the U.N.

Consumer Confidence Falls to New Low

April 11th, 2008 . by TexasFred

WASHINGTON (AP) - Americans’ confidence in the economy fell to a new low, dragged down by worries about mounting job losses, record-high home foreclosures and zooming energy prices.

According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence dropped to a mark of 29.5 in April, down from 33.1 in March. The new reading was the worst since the index began in 2002. It marked the fourth month in a row where confidence has fallen to an all-time low.

“Consumers are very pessimistic,” said Mark Vitner, economist at Wachovia. “There are not a lot of happy campers out there.”

Over the past year, consumer confidence has deteriorated significantly. Worsening problems in housing, harder-to-get credit, financial turmoil on Wall Street and lofty energy prices have put people in a much more gloomy mind-set. Last April, confidence stood at 85.4. The index is based on results from the international polling firm Ipsos.

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Consumer Confidence Falls to New Low

More airlines either file for bankruptcy or Chapter 11 protection, Frontier Files for Bankruptcy Protection, the price of gas is through the roof, Gas Prices Could Hit $4.00 Per Gallon, and I guess this could be looked at as a sort of bright spot, Oil prices ease back from $112-a-barrel peak but today the stock market, the Dow, is off by over 250 points, NASDAQ is off by 61 points and the S&P’s are down 27, so, maybe it’s not that good a news story or the economic stimulus we need…

Meanwhile, home loans are almost a thing of the past, Home loans are harder to get, and this, Overextended U.S. home loans, and automobile owners are defaulting on their loans at a record pace, Defaults soar on auto loans in pattern likened to mortgage crisis, as the Moron in Chief tells his loyal followers, U.S. is not headed for recession..

Most Americans, something like 70% of ALL Americans, are not stupid, we see what’s happening to our dollars and this nation, and we’re not falling for the BS coming from the Bush White House, most of us I say because then there’s folks like the one in the following, a reader that told me recently, “The House and the Senate are to blame for Bush’s light tread, I think. He was put in a terrible position, and he has been a strong leader in the face of the rudest and meanest Congress a President could have. He has had little loyalty, including from McCain.”..

And to that I have to ask, what planet are YOU living on?!?!

Bush may not be to blame for ALL the ills of America, but to claim that he is the victim of a “rude and mean” Congress is nothing more than outright lunacy, and an attempt to deflect blame away from your hero, this has ALL happened on the Bush watch, Bush had a DREAM setup in the House and Senate and HE turned that dream into a nightmare, he had a Republican House and Senate, a Conservative majority SCOTUS as well as huge U.S. and world support for the actions in Afghanistan, so what does he do next??

The Moron in Chief takes us into his Debacle in Iraq, an action that we had NO business engaging in, and by doing so he lost focus on the REAL battle in the War on Terror, Afghanistan, not to mention the fact that his approval ratings and support level fell to all time lows, both domestically and world wide…

What Bush has done for the American people is this; he has taken the USA and it’s citizens to the very brink of financial disaster, we are all but bankrupt, we are owned by the Chinese, for crying out loud folks, we have to borrow money from other nations to pay OUR debts, yet we continue to spend BILLIONS of dollars in Iraq, a venture that has not, and quite likely will NEVER yield any financial gain to us, in any way…

But Mr. Bush says we’re not heading into a recession, so, it must be true, just ask any Bush Bot

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