North Korea Keeps World Guessing
WASHINGTON — With North Korea reeling from economic and succession crises, American and South Korean officials early this year secretly began gaming out what would happen if the North, led by one of the world’s most brutal family dynasties, collapsed.
Over an official lunch in late February, a top South Korean diplomat confidently told the American ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that the fall would come “two to three years” after the death of Kim Jong-il, the country’s ailing leader, Ms. Stephens later cabled Washington. A new, younger generation of Chinese leaders “would be comfortable with a reunited Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a benign alliance,” the diplomat, Chun Yung-woo, predicted.
But if Seoul was destined to control the entire Korean Peninsula for the first time since the end of World War II, China — the powerful ally that keeps the North alive with food and fuel — would have to be placated. So South Korea was already planning to assure Chinese companies that they would have ample commercial opportunities in the mineral-rich northern part of the peninsula.
As for the United States, the cable said, “China would clearly ‘not welcome’ any U.S. military presence north of the DMZ,” the heavily mined demarcation line that now divides the two Koreas.
Full Story Here: North Korea Keeps World Guessing
Certainly, thanks to WikiLeaks, there are things being read about U.S. Intelligence and operations that doesn’t need to be read, but, if our guys are on their toes, a slight change in game plan can negate most, if not all of the damage that has been done.
“China would clearly ‘not welcome’ any U.S. military presence north of the DMZ,”
My question is this; if the 2 Koreas are united as one, why would we need a military presence in Korea at all? Aren’t we in South Korea to protect them from the North? If North and South are merged as one, who then are we there to protect?
As to China not welcoming a U.S. military presence north of the DMZ, if the Korean peninsula is united, the DMZ would no longer exist and American troops wouldn’t be needed in that area.
And to further drive a point home, as ANY student of military history knows, the Yalu river is the border between what is now North Korea and China. Historically, the Chinese have always mobilized when ANY military force approached the Yalu. It only makes sense that they would be uncomfortable with a U.S. presence on their border.
The cables about North Korea — some emanating from Seoul, some from Beijing, many based on interviews with government officials, and others with scholars, defectors and other experts — are long on educated guesses and short on facts, illustrating why their subject is known as the Black Hole of Asia. Because they are State Department documents, not intelligence reports, they do not include the most secret American assessments, or the American military’s plans in case North Korea disintegrates or lashes out.
The Black Hole of Asia? Well, that should get Je$$ie Jack$on, Al $harpton, $heila Jack$on Lee and Eddie Bernice John$on fully involved. Given the fact that these ignorant cretins all recently thought that a reference to a Black Hole was a racial thing.
Seriously, we are long on speculation and short on Intelligence. It would be difficult to place the needed boots on the ground in China and North Korea, the ones we need to gather 1st hand Intel.
The military and Intel services have many members that can blend in with Hispanic, European and Arab environments. To place Intel agents in China, North Korea or any other nation in that area of the world would require a deep cover operation, one that takes years to develop and become productive.
They contain loose talk and confident predictions of the end of the dynasty that has ruled North Korea for 65 years. Those discussions were fueled by a rash of previously undisclosed defections of ranking North Korean diplomats, who secretly sought refuge in the South.
Defections. The source of much Intelligence. Some good, some not so good. Most times a foreign diplomat will simply tell you what you want to hear, just enough to attain the most cherished of prizes, one that ALL defectors seek, political asylum.
They will tell you everything YOU want to know, but if they are smart, they will never disclose all that THEY know. They will dole it out in small portions over time. It’s their life insurance policy.
There is no doubt that North Korea is a danger, to the South, Japan, to us, and even to their benefactor, China.
What the resolution will be is anyone’s guess. I don’t see the death of Kim Jong-Il as being the event that will cause North Korea to fall. I do see the rise of his son, Kim Jong-Un as a distinct threat to what little stability North Korea has. If the North Korean military refuses to bow to his will, North Korea could indeed implode.
Or, Kim Jong-Un could prove to be a more cruel and diabolical dictator than his father.
I also don’t see the Obama administration being the source of a reasonable solution. Obama and Company will talk, they will posture, they will rattle sabers, but under Obama I see very little chance of a military solution, and somehow, I don’t think the North Koreans and China are in the mood for an apology or beer summit.